Leading Through the Fog: Navigating Organizational Change When the Path Isn't Clear

Uncertainty isn't new to business leaders, but the intensity and frequency of disruptive change we're experiencing today is unprecedented. Whether you're managing a technology transformation, restructuring your organization, or responding to market shifts, the challenge isn't just what to do—it's how to lead when you don't have all the answers.

After over two decades working with executives through major organizational transformations, I've observed that the leaders who navigate uncertainty most effectively aren't the ones with the best strategic plans. They're the ones who understand that organizational change is fundamentally a leadership problem, not just an operational one.

The Hidden Leadership Challenge in Every Transformation

Most organizations approach major change initiatives—system implementations, mergers, restructurings—as primarily operational challenges. They focus on project plans, timelines, and deliverables. These elements matter, but they're not where transformations typically derail.

The real obstacle is this: change requires people to behave differently, and people only change their behavior when they understand why it matters to them personally.

I've watched well-designed transformation initiatives fail because leaders focused exclusively on the "what" and "how" while neglecting the "why" that resonates with each stakeholder. The executive team might be aligned on the strategic rationale, but if the middle managers implementing the change don't see what's in it for them beyond "this is what leadership wants," you're pushing water uphill.

Three Questions That Change How You Lead Through Uncertainty

When the path forward isn't clear, these questions can help you lead more effectively:

1. "How am I showing up right now, and what impact is that having?"

Uncertainty amplifies everything about your leadership—both strengths and gaps. If you typically lead with confidence and decisiveness, that might manifest as false certainty when you don't have answers. If you naturally seek consensus, you might delay necessary decisions while waiting for clarity that won't come.

Self-awareness isn't just nice to have during change; it's the foundation for adapting your approach when circumstances demand it. Pay attention to how your team responds to you. Are they bringing you problems or solutions? Are they asking questions or waiting for direction? Their behavior reflects what they're seeing in your leadership.

2. "What's in it for each stakeholder—really?"

This isn't about crafting talking points. It's about genuinely understanding what drives each person or group you need to influence. The CFO cares about different things than the operations manager, who has different concerns than the frontline employee.

I've seen transformations gain momentum when leaders take time to understand individual motivations beyond the obvious. Sometimes what matters most to a resistant stakeholder isn't financial—it might be maintaining their expertise, preserving relationships with their team, or not having to admit that the way they've always done things needs to change.

3. "Where can I create clarity, even if I can't eliminate uncertainty?"

You can't remove uncertainty, but you can reduce ambiguity. These aren't the same thing.

Uncertainty is about not knowing what will happen. Ambiguity is about not understanding expectations, roles, or decision-making authority. While you might not know exactly how a transformation will unfold, you can be clear about who decides what, how information will be shared, and what principles will guide decisions when circumstances change.

Moving from Insight to Action

Knowing these questions is one thing. Building them into how you actually lead is another. Here's what this looks like in practice:

Create regular reflection moments. Block 30 minutes weekly to assess how you're showing up. What went well in your leadership this week? What didn't? What pattern are you noticing about how you respond under pressure? This isn't navel-gazing—it's the same discipline you'd apply to reviewing financial performance.

Map stakeholder motivation before you craft your message. Before your next significant communication about change, list your key stakeholders and write down what you believe matters most to each one. Then validate your assumptions through conversations. You'll often be surprised by what you learn.

Define the boundaries of uncertainty. In your next team meeting about a change initiative, try this exercise: draw three columns labeled "What We Know," "What We Don't Know Yet," and "What We Can Control." Filling out each column explicitly reduces ambiguity even when uncertainty remains.

The Isolated Executive's Dilemma

Here's something rarely discussed: the higher you climb, the fewer peers you have to serve as thought partners for your toughest challenges. When you're navigating a major transformation, the people who report to you need you to provide direction and confidence. Your own boss expects you to have answers. Your board wants reassurance.

Who do you turn to when you're wrestling with whether your approach is right? When you're not sure if the resistance you're experiencing is legitimate concern or change fatigue? When you need to think through second and third-order implications of decisions you're facing?

This isolation is one reason why effective leaders during uncertain times often work with an external advisor—someone who brings both business acumen and coaching capability, who can challenge your thinking without agenda, and who helps you see patterns you're too close to notice.

What Actually Distinguishes Successful Change Leadership

The leaders who successfully navigate their organizations through uncertain times share several characteristics, but one stands out: they've made peace with not having all the answers while maintaining clarity about their role in the journey.

They understand that their job isn't to eliminate uncertainty for their teams—it's to help people develop the capabilities to operate effectively within it. They create space for their teams to problem-solve rather than waiting for executive direction on every decision. They model adaptability by acknowledging when their initial approach isn't working and adjusting course.

Most importantly, they recognize that transformation isn't something you do to an organization—it's something you lead people through, one stakeholder conversation and one team interaction at a time.

Your Next Step

If you're leading through significant organizational change right now, consider this: What's the one leadership capability you most need to develop to be more effective in this transformation? Not the technical skill or the operational competency—the leadership capability.

Whatever your answer, that's your starting point. The path forward might not be clear, but your next step always can be.

Deborah Newman brings almost three decades of Fortune-level executive experience to her work as an advisor to leaders navigating major transformations. Through Newman Leadership Group, she helps executives solve the leadership challenges that accompany organizational change.